This is all fascinating speculation and not entirely irrelevant, because if we don't speculate on what would have been if, we can't assess the importance of what actually happened. For example, how different would the world be if the Fascist powers had won the Second World War? Or if Charles Dickens had never existed, would either literature (outside his actual work) or social conditions have become much different from what they did?
I think the problem with the Princip/Archduke scenario is that Princip wouldn't have been satisfied. He wanted a dramatic act in a tradition of war and sacrifice. He may well have hoped his act would bring war. I'm not aware of a spanking having ever brought about a war, though we could always rewrite the Helen of Troy story. I agree that the First World War was "an accident waiting to happen", though in different circumstances different powers might have been involved or stayed out, leading in all likelihood to a shorter war and nothing like the same carnage.
I think the future of the Russian Empire if war had been avoided is a particularly interesting subject: after all, the economy was growing very fast indeed. The Communist revolution might well never have happened, but reform would have been inevitable if revolution wasn't and I suspect the Finns and some other peripheral nations would have won independence by now, given Finnish sisu. |