Goodgulf:
There have been countless "they might have known" stories - and they did know something. That's why Hong Kong - but all the American planners thought the attack would come at the Philippines, not Hawaii. Looking at the map you can see why they felt that way - how could you attack Hawaii before you hit the Philippines?
As for the surprise attack, it wasn't intended that way. The Japanese Ambassador was supposed to present the US Government with an ultimatum, one that the Japanese knew that the Americans would never agree to, and that was supposed to the pretext for the war. Ultimatum given, rejected, then war starting less than an hour later.
Well, based on my readings, the first thirteen parts of the message to be delivered had been decrypted, by both the Japanese embassy personnel and the American interceptors--they were a long summarization of the then-current Japanese-American relationship, but the tone of them made the Americans realize that the Japanese government felt that war was inevitable.
The last (fourteenth) part, sent the following morning (Washington D.C. time), was a formal declaration of war, meant to be delivered to the U.S. government (specifically Secretary of State Cordell Hull) just before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor occurred, thereby allowing the Japanese government to claim that it wasn't a sneak attack during peacetime. The decryption delay, however, left the Japanese emissaries delivering their country's formal declaration of war after the Pearl Harbor bombing had already occurred.
From the Japanese perspective, their failure to formally declare war before the attack on Pearl Harbor was a critical mistake, based on a belief that the U.S.A. wouldn't have reacted so strongly against Japan if the American people hadn't felt that their country had been attacked during peacetime. (Personally, I doubt that it would've made much significant difference in American attitudes, even if the Japanese emissaries had gotten their country's declaration of war on Hull's desk slightly before the bombing of Pearl Harbor occurred.)
As for the Philippines, the American colonial occupiers there were attacked the following day and, even having been informed that the war was underway, somehow managed to be caught unprepared, with their combat aircraft destroyed on the ground at Clark Field by a Japanese air raid.
I've always found the 'conspiracy' argument RE the U.S. defenses at Pearl Harbor being in a low state of alertness, while the American aircraft carriers were away at sea (and hence undamaged by the bombing), to be rather compelling. Franklin Roosevelt was desperate to get the U.S.A. into the war in Europe, one way or another... --C.K.